BKV study examines the ELVR with a forecast for 2042

2026-08-21 08:28

The study examines the extent to which the usage targets for plastic recyclates required under the ELVR can be achieved.

The recently published EU Regulation on End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVR) sets clear standards for the circular economy, including:

Uniform requirements for recyclability
Basic rules for extended producer responsibility (EPR)
Harmonised requirements for the collection and treatment of end-of-life vehicles, with targets for dismantling, recovery and recycling, as well as reuse
Design strategies from manufacturers and suppliers using a new method to improve reusability and recyclability
Setting targets for the proportion of recycled material with standardised provisions for calculation

In a study, BKV GmbH examined the extent to which the required minimum proportion of recycled plastic from post-consumer plastic waste, known as post-consumer recyclates (PCR), can be met. According to the regulation, the minimum proportion is to rise in stages, initially to 15 per cent from 2032 and 25 per cent from 2036. In addition, the ELVR stipulates that 20 per cent of the PCR content, or 5 per cent of the recycled materials used, must come from end-of-life vehicles. Based on the expected total Europe-wide demand for plastics in the automotive sector of approximately 4,642 kilotonnes, the required quantity of these closed-loop recyclates for new vehicles by 2042 is estimated at around 230 kilotonnes.

The study’s forecast for PCR availability in a two-scenario model is as follows:

Business-as-usual scenario: If development continues under current conditions, approximately 130 metric tonnes of PCR plastics from end-of-life vehicles can be used by 2042 (corresponding to approximately 2.8 per cent of total Europe-wide demand). High quality requirements, in particular, limit the possibilities for using this material.
Progressive scenario: Around 210 kilotonnes – equivalent to approximately 4.5 per cent of the automotive sector’s total demand for plastics – are achievable. However, this will require considerable effort, such as a significant expansion of dismantling and recycling capacities, including chemical recycling processes.

The study concludes that even in the progressive scenario, the target of 5 per cent closed-loop PCR cannot be achieved.

BKV commissioned Conversio Market & Strategy GmbH to carry out the study, which was supported by Plastics Europe Deutschland and TecPart – Verband Technische Kunststoff-Produkte e.V..

Further information: Link to order the study “End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation (ELVR) – Fulfilment of recycled content target in EU-27+3”

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